By Business Insider Reporter
Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni has secured a seventh term in office, extending his rule to more than four decades after the Electoral Commission declared him the winner of Thursday’s general election. While the result offers short-term political continuity in East Africa’s third-largest economy, it has also revived concerns around governance, civil liberties and the long-term investment climate.
According to official results announced on Saturday, Museveni, 81, won 71.65 percent of the vote, defeating his closest challenger, opposition leader Robert Kyagulanyi, popularly known as Bobi Wine, who garnered 24.72 percent.
Bobi Wine has rejected the outcome, calling the results “fake” and saying he went into hiding after security forces raided his residence.
Stability versus democratic risk
For regional businesses and investors, Museveni’s victory reinforces a familiar trade-off in Uganda: policy continuity and macroeconomic predictability on one hand, and growing democratic and institutional risks on the other.
Uganda has long been viewed as a relatively stable market within the East African Community (EAC), benefiting from Museveni’s tight control of the state, security agencies and economic policy direction. His government has overseen major infrastructure investments, including oil and gas development in the Albertine Graben, transport corridors linking Uganda to Kenya and Tanzania, and regional power interconnections.
However, the election was marred by violence, an internet shutdown, and allegations of intimidation, raising questions about regulatory transparency, rule of law and reputational risk – factors closely watched by multinational firms, development financiers and regional banks.
Internet shutdown raises digital economy concerns
One of the most immediate business impacts was the shutdown of internet and social media platforms ahead of the vote, which remained in place as results were announced. While authorities framed the move as a security measure, the disruption affected mobile money transactions, e-commerce, logistics coordination and media operations.
Uganda’s digital economy – particularly fintech, cross-border payments and online services – has grown rapidly in recent years. Repeated internet shutdowns during elections risk undermining confidence among tech investors and could weaken Uganda’s competitiveness relative to regional peers such as Kenya and Rwanda, where digital infrastructure reliability is increasingly seen as a strategic asset.
Opposition clampdown and institutional trust
Bobi Wine said security forces raided his home on Friday night, forcing him to flee, while his family members were reportedly placed under house arrest. Police denied raiding the residence but acknowledged restricting access in what they described as “security hotspots.”
African Union and regional election observers reported no evidence of large-scale ballot stuffing but criticised arrests, intimidation and abductions targeting opposition figures and civil society groups. Former Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan, who led the AU observer mission, warned that such actions had “instilled fear and eroded public trust in the electoral process.”
For businesses, weakening institutional trust can translate into higher political risk premiums, particularly for sectors requiring long-term capital commitments such as energy, mining, infrastructure and telecommunications.
Markets react calmly, for now
Despite the political tensions, financial markets and the business community have so far reacted cautiously rather than dramatically. Analysts say this reflects expectations that Museveni’s win was largely priced in, given his dominance over state institutions and the security apparatus.
Uganda’s ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) is also on track to retain a strong majority in parliament, suggesting limited policy disruption in the near term. This continuity is likely to reassure investors involved in large government-backed projects, including oil production scheduled to begin later this decade.
Regional implications for East Africa
Uganda remains a key transit economy for South Sudan, eastern DR Congo and Rwanda, making political stability critical for regional trade flows. Any prolonged unrest or sanctions-related pressure could ripple across the EAC, affecting transport corridors, fuel supplies and cross-border commerce.
At the same time, the election outcome highlights a broader regional challenge: how East African economies balance political stability with democratic accountability, particularly as youthful populations push for change while incumbents prioritise control.
Looking ahead
While Museveni’s renewed mandate ensures short-term predictability, the manner of the election—and the treatment of opposition figures – may complicate Uganda’s engagement with international partners, donors and ESG-conscious investors. For now, Uganda remains open for business. But as East Africa competes for global capital, governance standards, digital freedoms and institutional credibility are increasingly becoming economic variables, not just political ones.
