By Business Insider Reporter
Studies show that wildebeest migration in Kenya has taken a dent due to human activities. New maps, published in the Atlas of Ungulate Migration after a reseach show a 90 percent decline of wildebeest migration trends and this should serve as a lesson to Tanzania, which shares this global spectacle with Kenya.
The dramatic collapse of Kenya’s Mara–Loita wildebeest migration offers a sobering warning to Tanzania, home to the world-famous Serengeti migration and one of Africa’s most important wildlife economies.
New research shows that the annual wildebeest movement in Kenya’s Maasai Mara ecosystem has declined by nearly 90 percent since 2020, largely due to the rapid expansion of fences and other human-made barriers.
For Tanzania, where wildlife tourism is a cornerstone of the economy, the lesson is clear: once migration corridors are lost, the economic, ecological and cultural costs can be immense – and often irreversible.
According to scientists from the Smithsonian’s National Zoo and Conservation Biology Institute and the Global Initiative on Ungulate Migration (GIUM), more than 100,000 wildebeest once migrated seasonally across the Greater Mara ecosystem. Today, fewer than 25,000 remain, with most animals now confined to small, resident ranges. Fencing of private land, subdivision for agriculture, and uncoordinated land-use planning have fragmented critical migration routes, cutting off access to water, pasture and calving grounds.
This collapse is not merely an environmental tragedy; it is an economic one. The Maasai Mara migration, like the Serengeti in Tanzania, has long been a magnet for high-value eco-tourism. As wildlife numbers decline and migrations shrink, tourism revenues, jobs and foreign exchange earnings inevitably follow. Tanzania, which earns billions of shillings annually from wildlife tourism, cannot afford a similar outcome.
Lesson one: protect migration corridors before they disappear
Tanzania’s greatest advantage is that its flagship migration – the Serengeti – Mara wildebeest movement – still largely functions. But pressure is mounting. Expanding agriculture, settlement growth, fencing, roads and infrastructure projects increasingly encroach on wildlife dispersal areas in regions such as Loliondo, Ngorongoro, Simanjiro and parts of southern Serengeti.
The Kenyan experience shows that waiting until migration routes are visibly collapsing is too late. Tanzania must proactively map, gazette and legally protect wildlife corridors, dispersal areas and buffer zones, integrating them into national land-use plans and district development frameworks. Once private fences and permanent structures are established, restoration becomes politically and financially costly.
Lesson two: balance private land rights with national interest
In Kenya, the subdivision and fencing of private land accelerated after policy decisions in the 1980s allowed land around the reserve to be sold and individually owned. While private property rights are legitimate, the absence of landscape-level planning proved disastrous for wildlife.
Tanzania faces a similar challenge as it promotes private investment, commercial agriculture and rural development. The key lesson is that land tenure systems must be designed to accommodate both livelihoods and ecological connectivity. Wildlife-friendly land uses, conservation easements, communal grazing systems and incentive-based conservation schemes can help ensure that development does not sever migratory routes that are national assets.
Lesson three: infrastructure must be wildlife-smart
Roads, railways, pipelines and fences are often built with little consideration for animal movement. Kenya’s fencing boom shows how cumulative, small-scale barriers can have large-scale impacts.
For Tanzania, major infrastructure projects – from highways to energy transmission lines – must be subjected to rigorous, science-based environmental and social impact assessments that explicitly consider migration corridors.
Wildlife underpasses, overpasses, controlled fencing designs and route realignments are not luxuries; they are investments in long-term economic sustainability. Protecting migration is cheaper than trying to restore it after collapse.
Lesson four: climate change raises the stakes
Researchers note that climate change, particularly more frequent droughts, is compounding the effects of habitat fragmentation. Migratory species like wildebeest depend on mobility to survive climate variability. By blocking movement, fences turn climate stress into population collapse.
For Tanzania, this means that protecting mobility is a climate adaptation strategy. In a warming world, wildlife needs more space, not less. Conservation planning under Dira 2050 must therefore treat ecosystem connectivity as critical national infrastructure.
Lesson five: data-driven planning is essential
The Kenyan decline was revealed through satellite tracking and detailed migration mapping. Tanzania should invest more heavily in wildlife monitoring, data sharing and research partnerships to guide decision-making. Migration maps should be as integral to planning as roads and power lines.
A warning, but also an opportunity
The Kenyan case is a stark warning – but also an opportunity for Tanzania to lead by example. By safeguarding migration corridors, aligning development with conservation, and recognising wildlife as an economic asset rather than an obstacle, Tanzania can protect the Serengeti migration for future generations. As scientists warn, once migration is lost, it is extremely difficult to restore. Tanzania still has time to act. The fate of Kenya’s wildebeest should not be repeated south of the border.
